By Scott Fitzgerald Staff writer

Despite increasing wheat prices amid global drought, an axiom holds true for the producer — there are no shortcuts or ways around bad weather.

“The price helps ration the crop,” said executive director Tim Bartram, of Oklahoma Wheat Growers Association.

J.C. Hobbs, Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service area agricultural economics specialist, said good prices help producers, but the overwhelming problem is a shortage of the hard red winter wheat crop because of this winter’s drought.

What comes into play now is yield and quality, which will downplay bushel prices, Hobbs said.

Bartram’s and Hobbs’ views and opinions come on the heels of news Oklahoma’s wheat crop this year will be the smallest in almost a half century — a situation that mirrors what is happening to wheat producing regions around the world.

“Our prices now are higher than the world market. Sometimes millers here (in the United States), they will drive the price higher. Some of their contracts are coming due. They are increasing prices, inducing producers to sell,” Bartram said.

Based on weather, which dictates harvest times, the Southern Plains is currently supplying the world market. In the fall months, that responsibility falls to European countries that produce wheat. During the winter months, the world supply demand becomes the responsibility of countries in the southern hemisphere, Hobbs said.

Bartram said he knows producers in southern Oklahoma have begun harvesting. He expects harvest to begin next week here because of the current hot and dry spell.

“I’m going to get out there and get the combine going,” Bartram said about his own acreage around Guthrie.

According to opinions from farm economists in Kansas, a global drought in major wheat-producing countries and the lowest world grain stocks in a quarter century are fueling rising wheat prices amid predictions of shortages.

“It has been a steady climb,” Mike Woolverton, a grain marketing economist at Kansas State University said, adding that he expects prices to continue rising.

Among the latest indicators is a 10-day forecast for the Great Plains showing hot and dry weather, he said.

Wheat prices have surged to more than $5 a bushel on major commodity exchanges since the Agricultural Statistics Service released its forecast last week for the nation’s winter wheat crop, down 12 percent to 1.32 billion bushels.

Hard red winter wheat, the premier wheat used to make bread, is forecast to be down 23 percent.

The last time wheat prices surpassed $5 a bushel was 2002.

But not since the winter of 1995-96 have prices stayed at that level or higher for months, said Terry Kastens, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University. Prices then briefly hit $7.50 on the futures markets after drought and massive freezes in Kansas.

Oklahoma wheat prices heading into harvest typically hover around the $3 per bushel mark. The downside to higher prices is many Oklahoma farmers will have no wheat to sell, said Mike Cassidy, president of Cassidy Grain in Frederick.

U.S. Department of Agriculture statisticians have projected Oklahoma’s wheat harvest at 68 million bushels, the lowest since 43 million bushels were harvested in 1957.

“The price is high, but we don’t have any bushels to sell at that price, but that’s why it’s high,” Cassidy said of the catch-22 situation in which Oklahoma wheat growers find themselves.

“Basically, in Tillman County we are in ground zero,” he said. “We are only going to cut 10 percent of the acres that were planted. So we are probably as bad as it gets locally.”

Mike Rosen, manager of Wheeler Bros. Grain Co. in Kingfisher, said he expects farmers there to harvest about 75 percent of their planted acres.

“We’re kind of in a garden spot in Kingfisher County compared to other parts of the state,” Rosen said. “Not that that’s good. It beats what Cassidy has down at Frederick.”

Kim Anderson, a marketing economist at Oklahoma State University, said state wheat prices remain far below their historical highs. The cash price topped $7 per bushel in 1996, he said.

“We could approach it again, but I think it’s going to take more than a short crop in the United States,” Anderson said. “World wheat production is going to have to be lower than it’s currently forecast to be.”

In Kansas, the nation’s biggest wheat producer, the forecast of 319.6 million bushels is down 16 percent from a year ago. But if the latest weather forecast holds true, the state could see an even smaller wheat harvest than last week’s estimate, Woolverton said.

Another indication of a worsening global drought came this week in a report from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization indicating nearly two-thirds of the winter wheat crop in western and northern China has been wiped out by a prolonged drought. Some other areas have experienced a 40 percent to 50 percent cut in winter wheat harvest.

The Agriculture Department last week forecast global wheat production to be down 3 percent. The agency predicted lower exports for Russia and Ukraine would be partially offset by increased exports for Argentina, Australia and Canada.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.