BOSTON — This year has a 90 percent chance of ending as the warmest on record in the lower 48 states, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center said Thursday.
Temperatures from January through October were 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit (0.6 Celsius) higher than the previous mark, set in 1998, and 3.4 degrees above the long-term average, said Jake Crouch, a climatologist at the center in Asheville, N.C. U.S. records go back to 1895.
Warmer-than-normal weather earlier this year reduced the need for energy to heat homes and businesses, and helped push natural gas futures to a 10-year low in April. November and December will have to be "much cooler than average" to keep 2012 from becoming the warmest year ever in the contiguous 48 states, the climate center said.
Globally, temperatures are currently 1.04 degrees above average, on pace for the eighth warmest year on record, according to the center.
At the same time, the extent of snowcover across the Northern Hemisphere in October was the eighth-largest on record, Crouch said in a conference call with reporters. Arctic sea ice was at its second-smallest level in October.
Scientists are still studying the impact sea ice and snowcover have on weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, said Jon Gottschalck, a seasonal forecaster at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md. There is some research that shows less sea ice at the pole and more snowcover across the hemisphere can lead to cooler weather in the eastern U.S.
Because that connection is still being researched, forecasters didn't use it when making their prediction for the next three months, Gottschalck said.
The forecast is for an above-average chance that temperatures will be higher than normal from the Rocky Mountains into Texas and potentially lower than normal across the northern Great Plains. He couldn't predict with any certainty what would happen in the eastern U.S.
Another problem with making a long-range forecast this year is that an El Nino, a warming in the Pacific Ocean, failed to take place as expected, Gottschalck said. El Ninos usually bring warmer-than-normal weather across the northern U.S.
Britain Attack Believed Linked to Radical Islam
Raw: Kevin Durant Tours Moore After $1M Pledge
Weiner Launches Bid to Become NYC Mayor
Okla. Teens Get Video of Deadly Tornado Overhead
Man Shot While Questioned in Boston Probe
School Storm Protection Spotty in Tornado Zones
9-year-old Tornado Victim Loved Family, Singing
Moore Native Toby Keith Tours Tornado Damage
Oklahoma Survivors, Heroes Survey Damage
Okla. City Mayor: Up to 13K Homes Hit by Tornado
Raw: Aftermath of Deadly Attack in London
Paperless Scanner, Vision of the Future
Florida FBI Shooting Has Boston Bombing Links
Garcetti Elected Los Angeles Mayor Over Greuel
Raw: New Video of Deadly Oklahoma Tornado
IRS Official Pleads 5th Amendment
Lawyer: Feds Investigating Susan Powell Case
AK-47-wielding thug may be the most bumbling crook ever
Trout's cycle a boost for Angels
Kim Kardashian Flaunts Pregnant Bikini Body in Greece
NBA star pledges $1M to help tornado recovery
Shakira's Shocking Talent
Morgan Freeman falls asleep on air
GRAPHIC: Blood-Soaked Machete Killer Caught on Tape
Elin Nordegren Furious With Lindsey Vonn For Parading Kids in Public
Camera Captures Climber As He Loses Grip And Falls
Helen Mirren Meets with Dying Boy in Queen Elizabeth's Place
Crowd Chants '¡Si, Se Puede!' After Passage of Immigration Bill
DWTS Crowns a Winner
Police Ram House to End Hostage Standoff
Demi Moore a Rocks Bikini at Harry Morton's Family House
Anthony Weiner: I'm running for New York City mayor
Kate Middleton's Dress Flies Up
VIRAL: Baby makes epic soccer goal
The Hangover Baby All Grown Up
